NFL Power Ratings
Weekly Picks - Edge of Spread 2.0
NFL Power Rating - December 28th, 2006
Statistics based on Vegas Insider. Analysis by Forensic Real Estate in Aurora, CO 80014. Commentary including humor, definitions, how-to, photos, discussion, and high tech hocus pocus. NFL Reuben Droughns.
Numbers after the team name = first set is the team record - second set is record Against The Spread= ats.
There are 4 categories: Elite, Plus, Minus, Suck. Ratings are forward looking - it's what I expect them to do next week and the rest of the season.
Elite = expect to win any game - home or away - even against another elite team. Elite team is expected to win 3 of 4 remaining games.
Plus = expect to win 3 of 5 remaining games.
Minus = expect to win 2 of 5 remaining games
Suck = expect to win 1 of 4 remaining games - or worse.
Teams listed in order. Categories are indicated by the horizontal lines.
Basic betting strategy: Find the mis-match games with reasonable spread (6.5 or so). Example: elite v. minus, or plus v suck and bet the favorite. Or, find a game with 2 teams in the same category and spread of 5.0 (or more) - either take the points or bet the under-dog to win the game outright.
Week 6 (Oct 15, 2006) Bets / Results
How to evaluate the results: Betting against the spread is a 50/50 proposition. Flip a coin, or put a blindfold on a chimpanzee and expect to break even over time.
3 weeks into the season, I am doing worse than the blind chimpanzee for the year, but moving in the right direction. Disclaimer: No chimpanzees were harmed in the making of this website.
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Sources and Resources: NFL outsiders, next
Against the spread - year to date alpha by team - Vegas Insider
nfl power+rating point+spread under+dog
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